2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s First Look at the Acting Races

Back in March, I kicked off my early predictions for the 98th Academy Awards with a preview of potential Best Picture contenders. That was more primer than prediction – after all, the real race doesn’t start to take shape until trailers drop and, as of more recently, until Cannes weighs in.

With Erik and Ryan heading to the Croisette this year, we’ll have plenty of on-the-ground insight in the weeks to come. Cannes has become a bellwether for identifying true awards contenders versus beautifully packaged pretenders, and I’m especially eager to see which international features separate themselves at the festival.

But for now, let’s dig into some of the recent trailers and early buzz. After that, we’ll dive into a first round of predictions for who might emerge as serious acting contenders on the road to Oscar gold.

The Smashing Machine (A24)

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson steps into his most transformative role yet as real-life MMA fighter Mark Kerr. The trailer hints at a gritty, emotionally raw performance as well as a physically demanding one – exactly the kind of biopic turn the Academy adores (nearly 40 acting nominations in the past five years have gone to portrayals of real people). Adding to the awards potential is Emily Blunt, who plays Kerr’s emotionally fraught partner. It’s exactly the kind of supporting turn Oscar voters tend to award – as they did with Blunt in 2023 for a similar dynamic in Oppenheimer.

Verdict: Major awards contender

Weapons (Warner Bros)

From Barbarian director Zach Cregger comes this supernatural thriller, centered on a mass child disappearance with Julia Garner in the lead. The film also features Josh Brolin, Alden Ehrenreich, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan. It looks stylish, intense, and wildly entertaining – but probably too genre-forward to break through in major Oscar categories.

Verdict: Looks fun as hell, but not an awards vehicle

The Life of Chuck (NEON)

This TIFF People’s Choice Award winner (originally slated for 2024, now bumped to 2025) already holds serious Best Picture pedigree: the award has been a reliable Oscar predictor, with only one outlier (Where Do We Go Now? in 2011) missing the nomination in the past 15 years. Directed by Mike Flanagan and adapted from a Stephen King novella, the film appears to blend surreal whimsy with emotional depth in the vein of It’s a Wonderful Life or Big Fish. A rich ensemble includes Tom Hiddleston, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Mark Hamill, Karen Gillan, Matthew Lillard, and Jacob Tremblay.

Verdict: In the conversation

Eddington (A24)

Director Ari Aster returns with a bold new film set during the early days of the COVID pandemic. Joaquin Phoenix and Pedro Pascal appear to play ideological adversaries in a fraught political drama. With Emma Stone and Austin Butler also on board, the cast is stacked. But based on the teaser, Aster seems to be sticking to his usual, polarizing tone – fascinating for cinephiles, but a harder sell for Oscar voters. Hoping Cannes offers a clearer read.

Verdict: Like Weapons, a fascinating project, but not an obvious awards vehicle

The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features)

Wes Anderson returns with yet another ensemble showcase, this time fronted by Benicio del Toro, with major supporting turns from Michael Cera and Mia Threapleton (Kate Winslet’s daughter). The cast list is Anderson at his most indulgent: Tom Hanks, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Riz Ahmed, Bryan Cranston, Jeffrey Wright, and many more. 

Since The Grand Budapest Hotel received nine nominations (and four wins), Anderson’s last three feature films garnered a combined two nominations (both for Isle of Dogs – Animated Feature and Original Score). In that span, however, Anderson did win the Oscar for Best Live Action Short for The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. The trailer evokes more Asteroid City than Grand Budapest, but there’s still reason to believe this could play above and below the line.

Verdict: Optimistic contender in major categories, solid player in craft races

While these films are stirring buzz, it’s the performances within them that often carry Oscar momentum. Let’s zoom in on the actors who could shape the race. From transformative biopics to ensemble standouts, here’s a preview of performances that might generate Oscar buzz across a range of projects.

This far out, the predictions are less science and more intuition, but it is alchemy nonetheless. My acting predictions at this state blend data-driven trends with the Academy’s tastes. Over the past five years, 68% of acting nominations have come from Best Picture nominees, so I prioritize performances from films likely to land in that race. The Academy also favors classic Oscar bait – biopics, transformative roles, and emotionally charged performances consistently dominate. With the changes in Academy membership, diversity is playing a growing role, with 28% of recent nominations going to people of color. 

We also have to consider we don’t truly know who will be Lead and who will be Supporting, so there is a lot of gray in the first run. 

With all that in mind, here’s a working list of performances I’m watching closely – grouped by the kinds of roles, narratives, and trends that tend to gain traction with the Academy – followed by my first round of acting predictions by category. 

Actor/Supporting Actor

Biopic contenders (playing someone based on a real-life person, whether fictionalized or not):

Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere)
Jeremy Strong (Deliver Me From Nowhere)
Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus)
Andrew Scott (Pressure)
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Andrew Scott (Blue Moon)
Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
Colman Domingo (Michael)

Career Narrative contenders:

Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest)
Willem Dafoe (Late Fame)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone)
Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?)

Best Picture contenders:

Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Colin Farrell (The Ballad of a Small Player)
Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?)
Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)
Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt)
Paul Mescal (The History of Sound)
Josh O’Connor (The History of Sound)
Idris Elba (Untitled Bigelow – might be based on real events)
Christoph Waltz (Frankenstein)
Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)
Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
Pedro Pascal (Eddington)
George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
Miles Caton (Sinners)
Michael Stuhlbarg (After the Hunt)

Actress/Supporting Actress

Biopic contenders (playing someone based on a real-life person, whether fictionalized or not):

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Amanda Seyfried (Ann Lee)
Lucy Liu (Rosemead)
Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)
America Ferrera (The Lost Bus)
Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
Sydney Sweeney (Untitled Christy Martin Biopic)

Career Narrative contenders:

Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery)
Amy Adams (Klara and the Sun)
June Squibb (Eleanor the Great)

Best Picture contenders:

Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
Reinate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked For Good)
Ariana Grande (Wicked For Good)
Eyo Edibiri (After the Hunt)
Tilda Swinton (The Ballad of a Small Player)
Cate Blanchett (Father, Mother, Sister, Brother)
Emma Stone (Eddington)
Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love)
Zendaya (The Drama)
Jodie Comer (The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde)
Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman)
Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?)
Regina Hall (One Battle After Another)
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Rebecca Ferguson (Untitled Bigelow)
Anne Hathaway (Mother Mary)
Jessica Lange (Long Day’s Journey Into Night)
Mari Yamaoto (Rental Family)

With those key performances in mind, we can start to map out where they might land in the awards conversation. It’s still early, and plenty will shift in the months ahead, but based on current buzz, historical trends, and a healthy dose of guesswork, here’s my first round of predictions for the four acting categories.

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
3. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
4. Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
5. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked for Good)

1. Colin Farrell (The Ballad of a Small Player)
2. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
3. Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere)
4. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

1. Amy Adams (Klara and the Sun)
2. Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery)
3. Tilda Swinton (The Ballad of a Small Player)
4. Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt)
5. Ariana Grande (Wicked For Good)

1. Jeremy Strong (Deliver Me From Nowhere)
2. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
3. Christoph Waltz (Frankenstein)
4. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
5. Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt)

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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